ALDS Game 1: New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers (95-67):

  1. Austin Jackson, CF
  2. Magglio Ordonez,  RF
  3. Delmon Young, LF
  4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
  5. Victor Martinez, DH
  6. Alex Avila, C
  7. Ryan Raburn, 2B
  8. Jhonny Peralta, SS
  9. Brandon Inge, 3B

SP: Justin Verlander, RHP

New York Yankees (97-65):

  1. Derek Jeter, SS
  2. Curtis Granderson, CF
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
  5. Mark Teixeira, 1B
  6. Nick Swisher, RF
  7. Jorge Posada, DH
  8. Russell Martin, C
  9. Brett Gardner, LF

SP: CC Sabathia, LHP

This is when it really starts. Let’s do it!

Red Sox Make Mistake in Letting Francona Go

In October of 2003, Grady Little managed the Boston Red Sox to the American League Championship Series, and got them to within one game of the World Series against Boston’s hated rivals from the Bronx. The next season, he was removed from the position of manager, and a new person was brought in to take over the job. This man’s task was incredibly difficult, and after a season of nearly reaching the World Series, the weight and expectations of a city were put on his shoulders. For eighty-six years, this franchise had, not exactly been losers, but had not been able to put anything together and win a championship.

When Terry Francona came into the Boston clubhouse, all of that changed. In his first season as manager, the Red Sox again reached the ALCS, but this time, it didn’t seem like they had much of a chance. They dropped Games 1, 2, and 3, and just like that, they were down 3-0 to the Yankees and they were on the verge of making 2004 year number eighty-seven. Somehow, though, some way, something magical happened. The Red Sox won Game 4. Alright, 3-1, but there’s still not much hope. The Red Sox won Game 5. It was 3-2, and headed back to New York, but the Evil Empire still had two games to win one. The Red Sox won Game 6. The Sox had gained all the momentum, and things were tied up. Then, the Sox won Game 7, and just like that, they had done what no other team had ever done in history; they came back from a 3-0 deficit to win a postseason series. They went on to win their next four games as well, sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series to break the Curse and own Major League Baseball for just the first time in eighty-six seasons. Just three seasons later, they won yet another championship, coming back from a 3-1 hole again the Cleveland Indians and then sweeping the Colorado Rockies, another team that had all the momentum, having won 21 of 22.

Francona had changed baseball forever in Boston. A franchise, and city, that had once expected to lose; to pull a Billy Buckner when they thought they had won, now had a winning attitude. After going 0-for-86, they had beaten 31 other teams twice in a span of four years. Francona was a hero in Boston. Instead of waiting season after season for the Red Sox to lose hopelessly or blow away whatever they had, Boston fans began to get excited, demanding winning.

From the seasons between 2004 and 2010, seven seasons, Francona won made the playoffs five times, won the Wild Card four times, won the A.L. East once, won seven out of ten playoff series, and won the World Series twice in two appearances. He was only one of six managers to win a championship in that span, and the only one to win two. Since 2004, he has had a .574 winning percentage, the second-highest in baseball in that time period.

In 2011, the team came into the season with huge expectations once again, with hopes of a third World Series berth and maybe another trophy. They came out of the gate terribly, but went on to dominate after that. By September, they led the A.L. East, and were likely going to enter the postseason as the number one seed in the American League. The Red Sox were living well, with high hopes for themselves for the playoffs.

All of a sudden, things changed in a hurry. The team made mistake after mistake, and those turned to losses. The team was going into full-out collapse, and the full confidence turned into no confidence; expecting to win turned to expecting to lose. They became losers from the second they arrived each day, and Francona had lost the clubhouse. The losses continued to come quicker than one could say “collapse”, and there was nothing to do to stop them. By the end of the month, the fall was complete, and the Red Sox, improbably, had completely missed the playoffs. They had gone from World Series-bound to the outside.

The Red Sox decided something had to be done, and with good reason. You can’t just let a collapse like that happen with the second-highest payroll in baseball and do nothing about it. But you can’t fire twenty-five underperforming players, and someone had to take the blame for it. Would it be general manger Theo Epstein? Well, no; he put the team that was winning on the field, and no player on the field changed between the winning and the losing, so how does he take the blame? How can you go from genius to goat when nothing actually changed?

So, the plug was pulled on the manager, Francona. While it’s true that something has to be done after watching a team completely fall apart, the biggest such collapse in the history of the game, if anybody deserves a mulligan for something like that, it’s Francona. While his team collapsed in historic fashion at the end of 2011, it also came back in historic fashion in 2004. Before Francona, there was a championship-less drought for eighty-six seasons; with Francona, there were two in four years. He brought a winning attitude to Boston; without that winning attitude, they may have never even considered letting him go for a losing month. He’s still one of the smartest managers in the game, and one month of his players not doing their jobs doesn’t take away that fact.

Francona was without a doubt the greatest manager the Boston Red Sox have ever had. If there’s anyone who deserves to keep their job despite the worst collapse ever, it’s him. He’s so precious to the city of Boston that it’s worth keeping him after this month. However, they didn’t, and I can guarantee you one thing: whichever team eventually picks him up will be getting themselves one of the finest managers ever. Without Terry Francona, Boston’s streak could be at ninety-four right now.

Division Series: Predictions and Power Rankings

The division series is upon us, and there are eight teams left standing. Within the next week or so, that number will be cut down to just four. Let’s make some predictions about which teams those four will be, shall we?

Yankees vs. Tigers: The Yankees probably don’t feel too great about facing Justin Verlander in Game 1, and possibly again in either Game 4 or Game 5, but I’m sure the Tigers aren’t thrilled about drawing CC Sabathia either. After those two, the rotations are less star-studded, but we’ll see Doug Fister, who’s been an excellent trade deadline acquisition, and Ivan Nova, the young 16-game winner. I think the matchups are so close that each game will go down to the wire, and my prediction is Yankees in four.

Rangers vs. Rays: The only negative to the Rays winning the Wild Card with a final series sweep was that they used up their top three starters in James Shields, David Price, and Jeremy Hellickson, meaning most likely, none of them will be available for Game 1. Shields could start Game 1 on three days’ rest, but I would think the Rays would let him go for Game 2 on normal rest and have him ready for a potential Game 5. Price is only available at the earliest for Game 3; Hellickson, the youngster, could go for Game 2 on three days’ rest, Game 3 on normal rest, or Game 4 with two extra days of rest. Obviously, the rotation isn’t set up whatsoever right now, but I think they’re content with the way things are. The Rangers will pitch C.J. Wilson in Game 1, likely against Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, or the stud prospect Matt Moore. From there, the Rays have the pitching edge, and they already have momentum going into the series. The Rangers’ offense is good, but I think the Rays will avenge last year’s 5-game loss with one of their own: Rays in five.

Phillies vs. Cardinals: Like the Rays, the Cardinals’ rotation is a mess, but they’re extremely happy with the fact that they’re even here. If Adam Wainwright didn’t get hurt in Spring Training, him and Chris Carpenter would be a nasty 1-2 duo, but he did, and St. Louis will put out the likes of Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia, and Edwin Jackson to combat the Phillies’ vaunted rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt or Vance Worley. The Cardinals are living big right now, but it won’t matter as the Phillies sweep.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks: This might just be the best series of them all; the Brew Crew, with two MVP candidates hungry for a championship in what could be their last season as a duo, against the D-Backs, with a talented young pitching staff plus Justin Upton. Both lineups can hit, and both lineups can pitch; they’re both near the top of the league in both areas. This, to me, is one of the most even matchups out there, but I think it’ll be Milwaukee coming out on top in a Brewers in five series.

Now, let’s rank all eight playoff teams and find their areas of strength–or weakness:

Starting Lineup:

  1. Yankees: They’re just the best, deep 1-9 and are built for their ballpark.
  2. Rangers: Another great hitting team with a ton of talent, and can put ten on the scoreboard on any given day.
  3. Brewers: Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder one after the other? Forget about it.
  4. Cardinals: I have to give this one to the Cardinals. They have the best hitter in the game in Albert Pujols, not to mention Matt Holliday and the revived Lance Berkman.
  5. Phillies: Sure, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Placido Polanco are getting old, but they can still do a lot of damage.
  6. Tigers: Miguel Cabrera in the middle of that lineup might actually be underrated.
  7. Diamondbacks: Justin Upton has put it all together this season, and he hasn’t even maximized his potential yet. Absurd.
  8. Rays: They’ve been led by Evan Longoria down the stretch, but there’s too many weak hitters in that lineup.
Starting Rotation:
  1. Phillies: Who else? They have the big four, and that’s not even mentioning rookie Vance Worley.
  2. Tigers: Justin Verlander’s been the best pitcher in baseball this season and they added Doug Fister a few months ago. That might be four of the five games in this series.
  3. Rays: They’d likely be above the Tigers if not for the fact that their late-season push set the rotation back a bit.
  4. Diamondbacks: This decision was tough but I’ll give it to them because of Cy Young candidate Ian Kennedy and youngster Daniel Hudson.
  5. Brewers: They brought in Zack Grienke and Shaun Marcum in the offseason to bolster the rotation along with Yovani Gallardo, and they’ve done just that.
  6. Yankees: They have workhorse CC Sabathia, who will pitch every fourth day if necessary, and Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia, while not the best, occasionally put up masterful performances.
  7. Rangers: They lost Cliff Lee, but the rest of the rotation got a year of postseason experience under their belts.
  8. Cardinals: They lost Adam Wainwright, and Chris Carpenter might not be able to pitch until Game 3.
Bullpen:
  1. Yankees: They weren’t able to sign Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte retired, so they made up for it by shortening the game by an inning with Rafael Soriano. He occasionally blows up, but since he came off the disabled list, the Yankees have mostly won all their games when leading after six. Don’t forget about the greatest postseason reliever ever, Mariano Rivera.
  2. Tigers: Jose Valverde hasn’t blown a save yet this season in 49 tries, and doesn’t plan on blowing one anytime soon. Joaquin Benoit, like Soriano, has had a resurgence since his early season struggles.
  3. Brewers: Another challenging decision, but I like Milwaukee here because of the K-Rod trade, giving them a nice 8-9 tandem with him and John Axford.
  4. Rangers: Neftali Feliz hasn’t been as great as he was last season as the closer, but adding two premier set-up men in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara was a fantastic upgrade for this bullpen.
  5. Rays: I hate to say it, but Kyle Farnsworth has proven he can get the job done, at least lately.
  6. Diamondbacks: J.J. Putz puts some stability into the back end, and that’s a big reason why they’ve gone from the cellar to the attic this season.
  7. Phillies: I’ll give Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge the nod because they have good postseason experience; however, with the rotation, don’t expect the need for these two to come up too often.
  8. Cardinals: Jason Motte is the worst closer of the eight, and they don’t really have a single shutdown guy in the ‘pen.

A Month, a Day That Will Live On

A few years down the road, we’re going to look back on this month, and the day of September 28, 2011 and remember them as one of the greatest months and days in baseball history. It’s going to be a part of one of the all-time classic seasons, because of pennant races that came down to the wire, led by two of the most monumental collapses in the history of the game.

Going into September, both the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves had near-ten game leads for playoff spots. The Red Sox came into the season as American League favorites, and after overcoming a horrendous start to the season, had surged all the way back and were almost ready to wrap up home field advantage in the A.L. The Braves and their young but dominant pitching staff had led the way the entire season in the N.L. Wild Card race, and no one else seemed to be even close.

But in an instant, all that changed. Ten games became nine. Nine games became eight. Eight games became seven. By the time there was only one week left in the season, both teams were sweating, but still held their own destinies in their hands. They were still expected to pull through, and back their way into the playoffs, if even by just a slim margin.

Then the impossible happened. Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. The ball would pop out of gloves; even the most reliable of players would not be able to get that one out they needed to. And just like that, both teams had collapsed–they were no longer on top, but tied for the lead instead. Instead of resting up and rolling into the playoffs like both clubs expected, they had to fight for their lives, game after game. Every inning, every pitch became magnified times a million.

They were playing with a losing attitude. Coming into the ballpark each day were two 90-win teams who had no confidence and were defeated from the start. On the other side were two upstart clubs who had nothing to lose and were playing with an excitement that they could do something that hadn’t been done before despite being written off weeks ago.

It came down to the final day of the season: two ties between four teams for two playoff spots. There was a real possibility that there could actually be two Game 163’s the next day, a day of baseball that would be unheard of. The world of baseball was buzzing for what was set up to be the greatest ending to baseball ever.

Of course, everyone except Red Sox and Braves fans were cheering for the underdog. How anticlimactic it would be if they were still able to enter the playoffs by default. Everyone wanted to see some exciting baseball, and that meant they were rooting for the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals.

For most of the night, it seemed like it would turn out to be a bad ending to this exceptional playoff race. David Price was getting beaten up by the Yankees, and they took a 7-0 lead early. The Red Sox had a lead with just three innings to go. In the National League, it looked like there would be a tiebreaking game played on Thursday, as the Cardinals won 8-0 behind a complete game shutout from Chris Carpenter, and the Braves were about to hand a lead to their bullpen which had been so dominant all season long.

All of a sudden, just as things had changed at the start of September, things took a turn. The Rays, with a crowd full of life and energy, loaded the bases in the eighth inning. Then, came a walk. Next, a hit-by-pitch. After that, a sacrifice fly. There was new hope: bases loaded, the lead had been cut to 7-3, and the face of the franchise in Evan Longoria was coming up. You can guess what came next: boom. The Rays were back into it, and just like that, it was a one-run game.

Meanwhile in Atlanta, the Braves took a 3-2 lead into the ninth with rookie sensation Craig Kimbrel on the mound. Just as had happened the entire month, everything just went wrong at once. The Phillies loaded the bases, Chase Utley hit a sacrifice fly, and the game went into extras.

Back to the Rays: after scoring six runs in the eighth inning, the Rays were still down by a run with only three outs to go. One out. Two outs. The stadium in Tampa Bay got eerily quiet, because they realized this could actually be the end. Up came pinch-hitter Dan Johnson. One strike. Two strikes. The Tampa Bay Rays were a single strike away from losing their season, and an improbable comeback a strike away from going for naught. What else could possibly happen to make the day even better: Johnson hit a solo homer, and the Rays had new life. This game was going to the extra innings.

The game in Baltimore had been delayed by rain for a while, but when it was ready to continue being played, a one-run lead was handed to Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon. Bard, who had had the worst month of his young career, got the job done. All that had to be done was to get the final three outs, and the Red Sox would likely hold on to win the Wild Card. But it didn’t happen, just like every other time this month that they had a chance but wasted it. Robert Andino, spoiler of the year, hit a walk-off single, and the Red Sox just had to hope the Rays lost in extras.

The Braves went all the way to the 13th inning, and then it was over. The Cardinals had finished their game and won, and everyone in that stadium knew they had to win or it was over. After being beaten badly all month long, it was only fitting that they would lose on a walk-off flare into right, the cheapest of hits one can get. A celebration went off in Houston, where in the visitors’ clubhouse, the Cardinals were ecstatic.

12th inning at the Trop. Once again, the superstar Longoria was up. At this time, the Red Sox-Orioles final score went up on the scoreboard in the stadium, setting off huge cheers from those in attendance. Just a few pitches later, in a moment that might last forever, etched into minds as one of the greatest snapshot moments ever, the ball jumped off the bat, just landing fair outside the fences. Longoria raised his arms in sync with tens of thousands in the stands, and officially, two of the greatest collapses in the history of Major League Baseball had been created simultaneously.

Four teams. Four games. Two extra-inning games. Two walk-offs. It was a fitting day to cap off the most exciting months of baseball in recent memory. I don’t think you can top the excitement packed into two stadiums on this night, and the gloom that will be packed into two cities for the next few months–or years. It may have just been the regular season, but this was playoff baseball at its finest. We may never–ever–see another month or day like this ever again.

I’ll leave you with some more lasting images of the greatest regular season day the sport has ever had:

Constructing a Postseason Roster

One of the toughest things to do as a major league baseball manager is somehow form a postseason roster, balancing what players did in the regular season with what they could possibly provide in just a few games come playoff time. Joe Girardi will have some decisions to make this season, and I’ll try to figure out what they could be to fill out a 25-man roster.

Starting Lineup

Catcher: The only option here is Russell Martin, especially since Francisco Cervelli went down with an injury. The Yankees have said that he will catch every postseason inning, barring injury.

First Base: Mark Teixeira.

Second Base: Robinson Cano.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez.

Right Field: Nick Swisher.

Center Field: Curtis Granderson.

Left Field: Two options here: Brett Gardner and Andruw Jones. For most of the season, the clear answer was Gardner, but he fell into a slump for a while, and Jones, tearing the cover off of the ball, began to earn starts against left-handers. Both of them will make the roster; when Gardner starts, Jones can be a key pinch hitter, especially versus lefties, and when Jones starts, Gardner is a threat as a pinch runner.

Designated Hitter: When Jesus Montero came up from the minors, there was an outside chance he would make the postseason roster, or even possibly start at D.H. Since then, he’s been one of the best hitters out of all the regulars, earning starts against lefties, and even some against righties. In addition, just as we thought Jorge Posada was done, he’s had a bit of a revival. He can still hit against righties, so both of these guys will make the roster.

Total players on roster that may start: 11. This leaves three more spots for hitters, because in the postseason, with one less starting pitcher, you can get away with just eleven pitchers.

Depth

Backup Catcher: This is where it gets interesting. Francisco Cervelli was the obvious choice, but he’s done for the season, leaving Austin Romine as likely the only defensively-able catcher left. They already have two that know how to catch in Montero and Posada, but I’m not sure you want them out there in a playoff game should Martin go down as well. Romine may only be a Double- or Triple-A hitter, but he’s proven his worth as a major league catcher. Personally, I’d say to take him, but it really depends on how many backup infielders and outfielders Girardi prefers.

Backup Infield/Outfield: If Romine is included, only two spots are left (unless there are only ten pitchers, which is a possibility for the division series only). I would give those slots to Eduardo Nunez (backup infielder, good pinch runner) and Eric Chavez (solid vs. lefties, backup corner infielder). Chris Dickerson can be given a look as another backup outfielder and pinch runner, but again, only in the event Romine is not excluded or only ten pitchers are taken.

Total hitters: 14

Starting Pitching

CC Sabathia is the bonafide ace, and will start every chance he can possibly start. If every one of his postseason starts is on three days’ rest, except for the first, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. After him, the Bombers are going with Ivan Nova, who’s been the most consistent all season, and Freddy Garcia, fading but also consistent. Being left out, at least for the first series, are Bartolo Colon (he’s faded big-time), A.J. Burnett (terrible all year and a start against the Red Sox doesn’t make up for it), and Phil Hughes (what a fall he’s taken this season).

Bullpen

Closer: Mo. Enough said.

Set-Up: David Robertson and Rafael Soriano. The bullpen has shortened games all season for them, and although Soriano has a meltdown every few outings, it’s one that Girardi can count on. Moving on…

Middle Relief: Luis Ayala has done surprisingly well this season, as has Cory Wade. They don’t strike out many, but can get good contact outs. Boone Logan, as Tim McCarver pointed out, has been the Yankees’ lone lefty all season, until the 40-man call-ups, and will play the role of lefty specialist in the postseason as well. At this point, there’s all the guys that may get a spot, but probably won’t. The Yankees don’t need a second lefty enough to waste a spot on Aaron Laffey or Raul Valdes. Scott Proctor has been plain terrible.

Long Relief: This is where most of the top options will get left out. You have four guys for this role in Colon, Burnett, Hughes, and Hector Noesi, but only need two of them. One of them will get a Game 4 start in the ALCS should the Yankees get there, but are not needed this round. It will be clear early on that whichever one of the four is pitching the most often is in line to get that start. Personally, I’d select Burnett and Hughes, because Burnett seems to have the stuff to let it all out in a short outing, and Hughes has done the job before in the bullpen. But Colon is a real option for the fourth starter spot, and Noesi has filled the role up to this point in the season, so you don’t know for sure.

Every player has made their case to be on the postseason roster by now, and all that’s left is picking the twenty-five most valuable ones. In the postseason, after the starters, it’s more important to fill specific roles, and Joe Girardi and the coaching staff will have to figure out who they want in those roles.

Tigers, Here We Come

Despite having clinched a week ago, it took until Mike Napoli’s home run yesterday night for the Yankees to know exactly who they were going to play in the first round of the postseason. It turned out to be the 95-67 Detroit Tigers, who might just be the scariest team left in the American League, and for good reason.

It starts with pitching with the Tigers, and the Tigers’ pitching starts with Justin Verlander. Verlander has been nothing short of sensational this season, the best of the best in a year where so many pitchers have dominated the spotlight. He began to run away with the Cy Young Award early in the second-half, and hasn’t looked back since, even beginning to garner some consideration for the Most Valuable Player Award — as a pitcher. This season, he’s been a workhorse, pitching 251 innings. As impossible as it seems, he’s been able to keep his ERA down to 2.40 and his WHIP under 1.00 over that span. He’s dominated game in and game out, averaging just over 115 pitches and 7.1 innings per outing, with four complete games, two of them shutouts, one of them his second-career no-hitter. He struck out 250 (a batter an inning) versus walking just 50 (a batter every five innings) for a 9 K/9 and 2 BB/9. Perhaps it has been lucky — his BABIP is .236, down from a career average of .285, but maybe it just means he’s been forcing hitters to make terrible contact. His WAR is 7.0, surprisingly not even his best season, as he posted a 8.3 two seasons ago. Verlander leaves more than 80% of runners on bases, so even if you get on base, tough luck figuring out how exactly to get the run in. At this point, it just seems like every time he takes the mound, the Tigers are headed for a victory.

In two starts against the Yankees this season, Verlander has pitched to a 4.50 ERA, allowing three runs in six innings both times out, but I wouldn’t take those numbers into consideration too much. He really went on a run after the All-Star Break, and you can’t expect even the best offense to put up even three runs against this guy. Lifetime, the players currently on the Yankees roster bat .237 against Verly. The Bombers have faced Verlander in the playoffs in the past, five years ago in 2006. That was when he was a rookie with a blazing fastball, not as polished but certainly good, worthy of pitching Game 2 of the ALDS. I went to that game, and even though he just pitched 5.2 innings, he now not only has postseason experience, but he has postseason experience against the greatest team ever in the postseason, and in their home stadium to boot. That year, as one of the men who led Detroit to a World Series berth, Verlander had a 5.82 ERA, but this certainly isn’t the same Verlander. They’ve got to be ready for him for up to two out of five games should they draw Detroit, and try to manufacture any runs possible. Verlander’s obviously the toughest task of any of these potential competitors, and no one wants any part of him this October.

After Verlander, this rotation is still strong, although not one most would fear. Doug Fister has been extremely impressive since being shipped over to Motown at the trading deadline, going 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Take away the fact that Verlander’s the MVP candidate and Fister could be just as dominant come playoff time. He doesn’t strike out many, letting hitters put the ball in play, but gets it done because he allows minimal walks — that is, five in 70.1 innings since coming over. Opponents’ OPS is .522 since he’s been in Detroit. Needless to say, he’s been one heck of a deadline pickup. He hasn’t pitched much against the Yankees, just a total of 70 at-bats, but in one start this season, he was solid, allowing three earned runs in seven innings. The addition of Fister has given the Tigers one of the best 1-2 duos in the postseason, somewhere up near the Phillies.

After those two, you have Max Scherzer, 14-9 with an unspectacular 4.37 ERA. The Yankees have only batted .202 against him lifetime, and he made two starts against them this season, albeit extremely early in the season. In the first start, at Yankee Stadium, he gave up six runs in five innings; the next, at Comerica Park, he pitched eight shutout innings. If he pitches Games 3 or 4 of the series, it will be at home, a good sign: his ERA is 1.57 lower at home than on the road. After Scherzer, we should see Rick Porcello. Porcello doesn’t strike out many (100 K’s in 176 IP) but walks even less (44 BB’s). He doesn’t pitch tremendously deep into games, but it should be enough to get the job done. In one start against the Yankees in May, he scattered eight hits for just two runs over seven innings. Porcello’s home-road splits are the opposite of Mad Max’s: his ERA is 1.73 lower on the road.

A pitching staff isn’t complete without an endgame, and the Tigers certainly have one. It’s not the same set the Yankees saw in ’06, with the flamethrower Joel Zumaya and Todd Jones closing it out, but it might be even more devestating. In fact, along with the best pitcher in the American League, they might have the best reliever as well in Jose Valverde. Valverde is known for his knack to celebrate after every pitch, take hours between pitches, and act like every save is a World Series-winning one, but if he continues what he’s been doing this season, he may actually get that World Series save chance. He’s been a perfect 48-for-48 in save opportunities, much like Brad Lidge being perfect during his 2008 season. At first glance, Valverde doesn’t look like the type that would be a “safe” option to close out a game. He’s given up a walk for every two innings, which is not where you want to be as a closer. But he’s been able to escape jams, and just dominates right hand hitters. Valverde might be the best closer in baseball this season, and he’ll be tough to beat, but it can be done.

Setting up for Valverde is free agent acquisition Joaquin Benoit. Benoit had his early season struggles, very similar to our very own Rafael Soriano, but has settled down well since then. He’s allowed twenty-two runs all season, and fourteen of them came in one six-game stretch between April and May. Since then, he’s just shut batters down, so he could be a deadly weapon in the eighth inning. After him is Al Alburquerque; take a look at these numbers: 14.03 K/9, .145 batting average against, .152 slugging percentage against, 3 out of 30 inherited runners scored, zero home runs. That’s just filthy. Along with him, there’s Daniel Schlereth (lefties OBP is .273), Phil Coke (former Yankee dealt for Curtis Granderson), Ryan Perry, and David Pauley.

You may have noticed that except for a few part of the ‘pen, most of the pitchers the Yankees are going to face are right-handed. As a team, the Yankees have a line of just .255-.336-.435 against righties, compared to a dominant .281-.360-.467 against lefties. We’ve all seen the likes of Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Andruw Jones, and Jesus Montero hit considerably better against those lefties, but not quite as well against righties. Likewise, facing only righties this series could take Jones and Montero out of the lineup, at least for the majority of the games. I think it’s safe to say that we’d rather see a few lefties starting games for the Tigers.

For all the talk about the Tigers’ pitching staff, the lineup isn’t exactly a pushover. They’ve scored the fourth most runs in the game this season, and the number one stud is Miguel Cabrera. Seriously, how do you hit .343 and 30 home runs and 47 doubles and draw 108 walks and have over 100 RBI and runs scored? He’s not just the best hitter on the team, he’s an elite in the sport. He hits equally well against righties and lefties, home and away, so there’s no way to neutralize him. He’s also 9-for-16 lifetime against CC Sabathia, including two home runs, and .391 against Freddy Garcia, two of the likely ALDS starters.

Alex Avila is an All-Star, hitting .296 with 19 home runs, and the other catcher, Victor Martinez is even better, with a .326 average and over a hundred ribbies. Jhonny Peralta hits a point under .300 with twenty shots. The other guy who was traded for Curtis Granderson, one-time Yankees top prospect Austin Jackson hasn’t been so great: he has more strikeouts than hits, despite his speed (11 triples and 22 stolen bases). Overall, it’s a strong lineup that has guys that can get the job done when they need to.

The Tigers haven’t faced Game 2 starter Ivan Nova much (11 at-bats), but in over 300 at-bats against Detroit, both CC Sabathia and Freddy Garcia have been able to hold them to respectable levels.

My prediction for this series? I think the Yankees will be able to scratch out a Game 1 victory, drop Game 2, and come back to win Game 3. Then, it depends on whether or not Jim Leyland goes with Justin Verlander on three days’ rest for Game 4. If so, I think he edges out CC Sabathia and it goes to a Game 5. But my guess is Yankees in four.

September 28, 2011: It’s the most wonderful time of the year

With apologies to Christmas, this might just be the most wonderful time of the year. There are pennant races galore, and if you’re a baseball fan, this is what you live for. Tomorrow, we could be seeing two Game 163′s, but today, we have a tie for the A.L. and N.L. Wild Cards. Not only that, but at the end of the night, we’ll know, finally, who will play who in the Division Series.

Yankees (97-64):

  1. Derek Jeter, SS
  2. Curtis Granderson, CF
  3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
  4. Robinson Cano, DH
  5. Nick Swisher, RF
  6. Andruw Jones, LF
  7. Jesus Montero, C
  8. Eduardo Nunez, 2B
  9. Brandon Laird, 3B

SP: Dellin Betances, RHP — Probably 2-3 innings maximum, but this is exciting!

Rays (90-71):

  1. Desmond Jennings, LF
  2. B.J. Upton, CF
  3. Evan Longoria, 3B
  4. Matt Joyce, RF
  5. Johnny Damon, DH
  6. Ben Zobrist, 2B
  7. Casey Kotchman, 1B
  8. Kelly Shoppach, C
  9. Reid Brignac, SS

SP: David Price, LHP

September 27, 2011: Collapse Complete

Calls for MVP one day, goat the next.

Wow. Just wow. It’s now official: the Red Sox have blown their 9.5 game lead, and no longer control their own destiny. They’ve free fallen, and now actually have to win to make the playoffs. They’ll put Erik Bedard up against Zach Britton and the spoiler O’s tonight. Here are your Yankees-Rays lineups:

Yankees (97-63):

  1. Eduardo Nunez, SS
  2. Curtis Granderson, CF
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
  5. Mark Teixiera, 1B
  6. Nick Swisher, RF
  7. Jorge Posada, DH
  8. Russell Martin, C
  9. Brett Gardner, LF

SP: Bartolo Colon, RHP

Preview of the lineup vs. righties in the postseason (with the exception of Nunez)? It sure looks like it. We saw the lethal lineup that will go out vs. lefties on Saturday. My guess is not many of these guys will be playing tomorrow, so tomorrow should be an all-bench and bullpen day.

Tampa Bay Rays (89-71):

  1. Desmond Jennings, LF
  2. B.J. Upton, CF
  3. Evan Longoria, 3B
  4. Matt Joyce, RF
  5. Johnny Damon, DH
  6. Ben Zobrist, 2B
  7. Casey Kotchman, 1B
  8. Kelly Shoppach, C
  9. Sean Rodriguez, SS

SP: Jeremy Hellickson, RHP

Well, there’s just two days left, and neither the Red Sox nor the Rays can get away with a loss any longer. They both have to go out fighting for the final two days, and possibly a third. As a Yankees fan, I’m not exactly “cheering” for the Rays, but it’s hard not to be okay with it if we do lose, like last night.

Hopefully the Rays have more fans in the seats tonight than last night, where you could almost count every individual person. Have to like how those in the park last night waited and celebrated when the big screen showed the final outs of the Red Sox-Orioles game though.

Another thrilling night of baseball is in store for us tonight. Don’t miss it!

September 26, 2011: Game 160 of 162

Yankees (97-62):

  1. Derek Jeter, SS
  2. Curtis Granderson, CF
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Alex Rodriguez, DH
  5. Jorge Posada, 1B
  6. Eric Chavez, 3B
  7. Russell Martin, C
  8. Eduardo Nunez, RF
  9. Brett Gardner, LF

SP: Hector Noesi, RHP

Tampa Bay Rays (88-71):

  1. Desmond Jennings, LF
  2. B.J. Upton, CF
  3. Evan Longoria, 3B
  4. Ben Zobrist, 2B
  5. Johnny Damon, DH
  6. Matt Joyce, RF
  7. Casey Kotchman, 1B
  8. Kelly Shoppach, C
  9. Reid Brignac, SS

SP: James Shields, RHP

They don't call him "Big Game James" for nothing. This is as big a game as any.

This game obviously means a lot more for the Rays than the Yankees, and after the Yankees failed to come out of yesterday’s 14-inning thriller alive, the lead for the Wild Card is a game. With their top three going this series, the Rays absolutely need to win two out of three at the very least, and a sweep is what they should be going for. Joe Girardi will likely have parts of the starting lineup going each day, but we may see the perfect lineup for one of the three games.

Over in Beantown, Josh Beckett takes the hill against Tommy Hunger and the O’s, who did some damage to them last week. The Angels, with a devastating loss yesterday, have an elimination number of just one. Everything has to go right for them to somehow get back in it. In the National League, the Cardinals are in the same position as the Rays, one game back of the Wild Card lead as the Braves try to keep from collapsing in extraordinary fashion.

These last three games are going to be fun as a baseball fan, even though the Yankees have done all they need to do. Let’s try to enjoy these last three regular season games before every pitch is filled with extra pressure come Friday.

The Home Stretch

The season began on March 31. Every single team in baseball was tied for first place (or last, whichever way you see it). Fast-forward 178 days into the future, and a lot has changed, but some races are still as close as ever. Each team has exactly 162 games to make their case that they deserve to be in the postseason, but that still might not be enough. These last four days of the season will make a tremendous impact on who barely makes it in and who barely gets left out.

American League Wild Card

Boston Red Sox – There’s no other way to put it: the Red Sox are reeling, and if they don’t right the ship quickly, it’s going to sink. There’s no excuses anymore. Yes, they’ve had some injuries, but every team has. This team should not be losing right now, but they are, and they might be going from home field advantage in the first two rounds at the beginning of September straight to a four-month vacation. They still hold their own destiny, but only because the Rays and Angels haven’t been able to capitalize with wins lately. At this point, they only lead the race by default.

Tampa Bay Rays - The Red Sox continue to lose in incredible fashion, but the Rays haven’t quite been able to make the best of it. They lost three out of four against the Yankees when three of the games were winnable, and only awakened once the Yankees had clinched the division. They’ll be playing those same Yankees the next three days, although this time, the Yankees don’t have anything to play for. With their top three starters going, they have to win two out of three, if not sweep.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - The Angels are more on the outside, because both the Red Sox and Rays would have to lose for them to have a chance. At the end of the day Sunday, they could be anywhere from one game back to eliminated, so we’ll know more based on today’s action. Like Tampa Bay, they also have their top three going in the final series of the season, against a team that is resting up for the postseason. Their series will likely be tougher, because the Rangers are still trying to play for home field in the ALDS or for the chance to play the Wild Card that round, but they should still be favored during that series.

Tiebreaking Procedures:

Two Teams:

  • If Boston and Tampa Bay finish tied: the Rays host the Red Sox in Game 163 on 9/29, the day before the start of the ALDS. The winner flies to either Detroit or Texas, depending on which team clinches the number two seed.
  • If Boston and Anaheim finish tied: the Red Sox host the Angels in Game 163. If the Red Sox win, they fly to either Detroit or Texas; if the Angels win, they head to New York.
  • If Tampa Bay and Anaheim finish tied: the Rays host the Angels in Game 163. If the Rays win, they fly to either Detroit or Texas; if the Angels win, they head to New York.

Three Teams:

  • Team A hosts Team B on 9/29. Team C hosts the winner of that matchup on 9/30.
  • Tampa Bay gets the first crack at choosing which team it is, followed by the Red Sox, and then the Angels get the leftovers.
  • The ALDS is scheduled to start on the 30th, meaning to get it back on track after pushing it back a day, the off day between Games 2 and 3 or the off day between Games 4 and 5 would be cancelled.

American League Seeding and Matchups

The Yankees have officially clinched the best record in the American League, meaning they will have the number one seed and home field for the first two rounds. The other two divisions in the A.L. have already been clinched, but the field is far from set. The Rangers currently lead the Tigers for the number two seed by one game, but because the Tigers went 6-3 against Texas this season, if the two clubs finish tied, Detroit would claim the number two seed. If the Angels win the Wild Card, the Yankees play them while the Tigers and Rangers face off. If either of the Red Sox or Rays win the Wild Card, the Yankees host the number three seed while the number two seed hosts the Wild Card winner. There’s still much to be figured out in the American League.

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